Obama to hold rally in county; chances in Va. discussed

Thousands are expected to pour into Prince William County today for Sen. Barack Obama's first rally as the Democratic presidential nominee.

The Illinois senator will start at a high school in Bristol, in the far southwest, reaching out to white rural voters before veering north to appear at Nissan Pavilion in Bristow. Both events are free.

While Virginia traditionally and overwhelmingly votes conservative in presidential races, Obama's appear-ances at opposite ends of the state underscores the potential for the commonwealth to become a major player in this year's election.

"It's exciting that the first minority candidate of a major party in U.S. history will be launching his national campaign here in [Prince William]," said Prince William County Democratic Committee Chairman Pete Frisbie. "This speaks volume about the importance of Virginia and Prince William County as the battle-ground for the 2008 presidential race."

Frisbie said anywhere from 25,000 to 50,000 people are expected to attend the rally that begins at 6 p.m. Doors open for the event at 3 p.m.

Gov. Timothy M. Kaine, a national co-chair and one of Obama's early backers, said Monday: "Virginia is in the front tier of states that they're very interested in doing well in. We've been telling him to make it a top priority and we're glad" they're coming early. Kaine will accom-pany the candidate in Prince William.

John McCain, the probable Republican candidate, heads to Richmond Monday for a fundraising luncheon, charging $1,000 to $2,300 per plate. McCain recently opened his state headquarters in Arlington County.

"We're going to witness the first presidential race inside Virginia in decades," said Robert D. Holsworth, a Virginia Commonwealth University political analyst.

Only two Democratic presidential candidates have carried Virginia in the last 60 years -- Harry S. Truman in 1948 and Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964.

"Virginia is a lot of things, but I don't think Virginia is a liberal state," said the new state Repub-lican chairman, Del. Jeffery M. Frederick of Prince William.

"Even if you look at the Democrats we're electing, they're not running as liberals -- they're running right of center," said Frederick. "Obama, it would be very difficult for him to hide from the number-one most liberal voting record in the Senate."

But Democratic gains over the past seven years for governor, the U.S. Senate and the General Assembly are viewed as warning shots that a historically red state could flip blue this November.

"You can't discount the Democratic momentum since 2001," said Ken Hutcheson, a veteran Republican strategist.

Early polls show McCain leading Obama in Virginia, though the Republican is at less than 50 percent. Virginia Commonwealth University's Commonwealth Poll showed McCain with 44 percent of the vote to 36 percent for Obama.

But a sharp increase in voter registration -- 100,000 new names as of mid-May, compared with 50,000 for all of 2004 -- and the candidates' performance in the Feb. 12 primary may add perspective not found in poll-ing.

Obama, with 623,141 votes, outdrew the Republican field. McCain and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee combined for 442,381 votes.

Nearly 135,000 Virginians ages 17 to 29 cast ballots for Obama. That's up from nearly 32,000 in the 2004 Democratic primary.

In contrast, about 53,000 voters ages 17 to 29 participated in the GOP primary this year. The previous contested Republican primary in 2000 -- between McCain and George W. Bush -- drew just over 66,000 young voters.

The mostly young Obama backers at The Camel set a goal to register 4,000 new voters in the Richmond area by the end of June.

"Here we are in a red state that Obama can carry," said volunteer A. Dale John, 40. "I'm excited."

But Del. Christopher B. Saxman, R-Staunton, head of the McCain effort in Virginia, also sees promise for his candi-date in churning voting rolls.

"It gives us an opportunity to get a message out to those younger voters about who John McCain is and what he's done for the country. And what his policies are, so we can turn those new voters into new Republican voters."

Holsworth said that with McCain's war-hero record, the Arizona senator "would be almost unbeat-able" in defense-rich Virginia, but is hobbled by the "national decline of the Republican brand."

Obama, too, faces obstacles such as breaking through to GOP-leaning rural voters, who appeared to favor Clin-ton.

Virginia Democrats have paired inroads in the countryside with huge gains in Northern Virginia.

House Minority Leader Ward L. Armstrong, D-Henry, originally a backer of former U.S. Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina, sees the Democrats holding a higher ground on one of the key issues.

Said Armstrong: "If you say to rural voters, to whom guns and conservative lifestyle are important, that you're not going to disrupt that, then you can talk about the economy and jobs."

Jeff E. Schapiro and Jim Nolan are staff writers at Media General's Richmond Times-Dispatch. Potomac News staff writer Elisa Glushefski contributed to this report.