GMU study finds Northern Virginia housing market steadies

The housing market in Northern Virginia has steadied these past few months due largely to falling prices and to the nearness of government jobs, according to statistics compiled by George Mason University’s Center for Regional Analysis.

Moreover, the future economy for the region bodes well, as the GMU estimates for 2010 and beyond show a bounceback of gross regional product levels to those seen in 2003 and 2004. GRP measures the market value of goods and services that are produced in a specific area and is a key indicator of evaluating economic health. Between 2003 and 2009, the GRP for the Washington area fell nearly 6 percentage points.

By 2012, the center’s numbers show, the GRP for Northern Virginia should return to the level in 2004. A healthier economy means a healthier housing market — and, in fact, GMU’s study predicts just that for the region, including Prince William County.

Between January and June of 2001, just over 6,000 new homes were sold in Northern Virginia, compared to about 11,000 in the entire Washington metro area, according to the GMU study. Sales topped for that same time period in 2004, with nearly 10,000 in Northern Virginia and 13,000 in the Washington region before tumbling in 2008. Then, sales for this six-month period stood at just over 2,000 in Northern Virginia and a little more than 4,000 for the metro region.

But now, numbers are on the upswing, GMU reports. Between the months of January and June for 2008 and 2009, new home sales rose in Northern Virginia from around 2,200 to roughly 3,000, according to GMU. And for the same period, Washington metro sales rose from about 4,200 to 5,100.

The positive economic signs are buoyed by the area’s job market, which touts the lowest unemployment rate of the nation’s top 15 cities, according to GMU. In July, the Washington metro area’s unemployment rate was 6.2 percent; in that same month, the U.S. average rate was 9.7 percent. By comparison, Minneapolis has the next highest rate in the top-15 cities’ category, at 8 percent. Dallas, Houston, Boston, Phoenix, Philadelphia, Seattle and New York all came in between an estimated 8.2 percent and 9.4 percent for unemployment. San Francisco, Chicago, Atlanta, Miami, Los Angeles and Detroit all surpassed the national average with unemployment rates between roughly 10.2 percent and 17.5 percent, according to GMU’s findings.

The job market has stayed positive in the Washington region, also, and the numbers from GMU point to more of the same. Of these same 15 cities — they represent the largest 15 job markets in the United States — only the Washington region can lay claim to the title of biggest federal government employer. Coincidentally, it’s the federal government that has added the most jobs in the past year, according to GMU’s findings.

Except for the fields of education and business services, all other industries have cut jobs, according to the GMU report, which rated a total of 13. Construction lost the most, followed by retail and financial.

Staff writer Cheryl Chumley can be reached at 703-670-1907.