Manassas schools: Dropout rates skewed

New statistics out of Manassas City Public Schools aren't flattering.

With a 72.8 percent on-time graduation rate and a 16.2 percent dropout rate, Manassas' numbers do not com-pare favorably with the 84 percent and 8.7 percent achieved by Prince William County Public Schools. And they are statistically worse than last year's figures of 73.7 and 13.3.

But dig a little deeper into the numbers and you discover why Manassas school board member Scott M. Albrecht calls the state's rating system almost "more of an art than a science."

Nearly 50 percent of the 77 students who dropped out of Osbourn High School in Manassas left more than two years ago. But because they were enrolled at the start of the 2005-06 school year, they still count as dropouts under the state's four-year window of data collection.

Dropouts by Virginia Department of Education standards are those students who typically either drop out and cite the reason (work, family issues, etc.) or move to an undisclosed location in which the school system can't track them down.

The overwhelming majority of those who move to another school district in Virginia are accounted for and do not go against the school district's dropout rates, said county schools director for accountability, Holly Hess.

According to Manassas City Public Schools spokeswoman Al Radford, just eight of 77 high school dropouts in the 2009 study were attending Manassas City Public Schools from pre-kindergarten through the third grade. And more than 71 percent of the students who dropped out were Hispanic.

In the 2008 study, 47 of the 70 dropouts, or 67 percent, were Hispanic.

These numbers would seem to correspond with the tremendous increase in that demographic in the early part of the decade followed by the subsequent exodus in 2007 and 2008 that occurred in many areas throughout the county and city.

Radford said the current system of monitoring student movement has improved greatly but still called the system "complicated" and is not sure how the VDOE can make it better.

Another issue surrounding graduation rates is the difference between the federal and state standards. Under the federally mandated No Child Left Behind program, only those earning a standard or advanced/IB Studies diploma are considered a graduate.

That excludes those who earned a modified standard diploma, a General Education Development certificate, a gen-eral achievement diploma, a certificate of completion or a special diploma.

And by the 2010-11 school year, a graduation and completion index will be instituted. Each year, the graduation index percentage -- a formula yet to be determined by VDOE -- must go up a percent until 2015-16, when every school must hit the 85 percent mark.
By achieving this requirement -- along with hitting the ascending Standards of Learning benchmarks -- schools will be fully accredited, according to NCLB. But those schools that fall short of these benchmarks for several consecu-tive years could eventually be restructured.

Albrecht said he'd rather see a student take longer than four years to get his diploma and have a successful career than graduate on time, go to college and then flunk out.

"As far as I'm concerned, if we graduate a kid in two extra years and they go on and become a great auto mechanic, we have succeeded," Albrecht said.

Manassas Park's 2009 numbers, while better than Manassas, still could be improved, said Bruce McDade, associate superintendent of curriculum and instruction and technology.

Manassas Park's graduation rate was 81.3, but its dropout rate was just 3.9 percent and its number of gradu-ates with advanced diplomas increased from 36 to 61.

"It tells a lot about the work we are doing at the high school," McDade said.

Staff writer Kipp Hanley can be reached at 703-878-8062.