Keith Fimian won Tuesday's 11th Congressional District Republican primary. He will go on to face sitting Democratic Rep. Gerry Connolly in November.
Connolly defeated Fimian in 2008, and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee seem to think the same thing will happen in November.
"Fimian's embrace of the far right puts him out of touch with middle-class voters in Fairfax and Prince William that want a congressman who stands up for them," said Jesse Ferguson, the committee's southern regional press secretary. "Keith Fimian puts quality of life issues in Northern Virginia a distant second to his extremist agenda."
We think the Committee's confidence may be misplaced.
A lot has changed since 2008, and Fimian's conservative agenda could very well play more posi-tively with voters this time around.
Since Fimian's previous defeat, a Democratic president has been elected and massive amounts of money have been spent in an effort to stave off economic disaster. As a result, our deficit is soaring higher than it has ever flown. In addition, Obama is faced with political challenge after challenge, each of which pokes chinks in the armor of hope and change that he wore during the 2008 presidential campaign. Con-nolly, to a certain extent, donned similar armor two years ago, and as the president's popularity fades, no doubt the reputations of his Democratic cohorts are also affected.
When Obama and Connolly entered office, they were inheriting President Bush's economy. But the economy remains laggard, and that means that Fimian can run a campaign addressing the problems of what has now become Obama's economy. The driving force behind Obama's victory in 2008 could now turn on him and fellow Democrats like Connolly.
Fimian recognizes this fact and intends to capitalize.
"I will campaign on the exact same issues that carried me to victory in the primary --issues like a commitment to turning our economy around, stopping wasteful spending and getting taxes under control. Now, it's on to November," Fimian said.
Fimian knows a winning strategy when he sees it, and if Connolly isn't careful, defeat could be around the corner.
Nobody has any business underestimating the threat Fimian presents to the sitting representative of the 11th Congressional District. The race this year is a re-match, but it might not be a repeat.
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