Clock ticking on redistricting

Western Prince William County likely will see dramatic political boundary changes within the next few months as 2010 census figures are disseminated and the redistricting process begins.

"There's been remarkable population growth … and Brentsville and Gainesville have just boomed," said Bill Vaughan, an economist and demographer for the county. "Brentsville has nearly doubled. It grew by 94 percent in 10 years, and Gainesville grew by 75 percent in 10 years."

The growth comes into play during census times, the 10-year constitutional mandate to count every man, woman and child in America. The idea behind the census is to ensure equal representation among voting districts at national, state and local levels so that no one gains political advantage over another.

The way to ensure equal representation is to create voting districts with equal numbers of residents -- and that means boundary lines have to be redrawn. In Prince William, there are seven county board districts, as represented by the seven supervisors, and redistricting rules require that the population of each fall within plus-or-minus 5 percent of the rest. In other words, if census counts show Brentsville has 100 residents, all the other districts must have between 95 and 105 residents.

According to Vaughan's population estimates from March, the county has 396,519 residents. Brentsville has 76,480; Coles, 51,316; and Occoquan, 42,614. Gainesville's district population count from March 15 stood at 72,926; Woodbridge's was 52,530; Dumfries' was 54,642; and Neabsco's, 46,011.

To achieve equilibrium, each district should have 56,646 residents, Vaughan figures.

"We'll probably end up losing more than 20,000" people in the district, said Supervisor Wally Covington, R-Brentsville.

With such heavy population growth countywide, the supervisors also could add another seat on the board, Vaughan said.

"My concern with that," said Vice Chairman Mike May, R-Occoquan, whose district stands to gain about 14,032 residents, "is that would increase the costs of administration. I don't know if fiscally that's the best way to go. I'd need to see the justification for that."

Covington said the costs of establishing a new seat, which carries the costs of office space and staff, could be $1 million.

The November 2011 elections throw another wrench into the redistricting process.

The census figures will be distributed to states and localities between February and April 2011. Between February and March, meanwhile, Prince William staff will form new district boundary lines based on population estimates, and will hold public hearings on the changes.

In April, staff will make any last-minute line changes based on official census data, and then the proposed maps have to go to the Department of Justice for final approval. That federal review can take up to 60 days, or until June, Vaughan said.

Following Justice's approval, the boundaries go to the state, where an ordinance is drafted to adopt the redistricting plan.

If all goes smoothly, the new lines will be publicized between June and August 2011. But that's when primaries are normally held in Virginia.

"In light of local elections," Vaughan said, "the Census Bureau says it will expedite the information to the states. But the June primary may move to September."

Either way, it's a high-pressure time for county staff and board members responsible for redistricting. Another issue to consider is the population and location of precincts within the seven districts. Precincts are created based on the number of registered voters and must serve between 100 and 5,000 voters.

Moreover, according to Vaughan, "precincts must be adjusted so that the precincts are wholly contained in the [supervisors' separate] districts." State and federal precincts, on the other hand, can overlap into other congressional districts.

One more consideration: gerrymandering. That's when districts are redrawn to benefit one political party over another, and it's illegal. What can be considered, however, is the preservation of "communities of interest," as Vaughan put it.

The term is hard to define, Covington said, but it relates to aesthetics and perceptions of what communities should be.

"It's hard to describe," Covington said. "It's about having schools, a place to gather. It's why people fight over postal zip codes, for instance … and it sort of starts to define where you are, gives a sense of civic pride. Sometimes, redistricting can upset that" and move treasured areas from one district to another.

Chairman Corey Stewart, who represents the entire county, said his task during the redistricting process is to be a facilitator.

"The chairman's role is going to be to try to broker a compromise among supervisors," the Republican said. "It makes no difference to me since my district is the county. But they're all going to want their different precincts, their different districts, to look a certain way, and my job is to work a compromise."

Staff writer Cheryl Chumley can be reached at 703-530-3903.