Study: Prince William policy drove away illegal immigrants

Since the Board of County Supervisors’ controversial illegal immigration resolution was passed, thousands of illegals have left Prince William.

However, crime, for the most part, has not changed significantly.

So says a two-year study conducted by the University of Virginia’s Center for Survey Research and presented to supervisors Tuesday.

Originally passed in October 2007 and revamped in April 2008, the resolution states: “Officers shall investigate the citizenship or immigration status of all persons who are arrested for a violation of a state law or county ordinance when such arrest results in a physical custodial arrest.”

Overall crime — with the exception of a near 30 percent drop in aggravated assault cases — has not changed significantly since the resolution was adopted. Partly because of the police department’s efforts to quell robberies before the resolution, violent crime has been trending downward in the county for the past decade.

In 2009, authorities didn’t find illegal immigrants responsible in any of the 12 murder cases in the county, and they were identified in just three of 37 rape cases. Nine percent of all aggravated assaults reports were determined to have been committed by illegal immigrants, making for the highest percentage of crime committed by that segment of the population.

On the other hand, based on several statistical analyses, the study showed between 2,000 and 6,000 illegal immigrants left Prince William after the resolution’s approval.

From 2006 to 2009, the Hispanic population (which accounts for nearly three-fourths of all non-citizens in the county) increased 18.8 percent in Northern Virginia but just 3.6 percent in Prince William.

This small increase in the Hispanic population is likely not due to more adults coming here but instead to a rise in births of Hispanic children, said Thomas Guterbock, director of the Center for Survey Research.

From 2006 to 2008, there was a 22 percent decrease in the population of Hispanic men ages 20 to 29. But even before the resolution’s passing, the poor economy, particularly as it caused woes in the construction industry, affected the decline in number of these men in the county, Guterbock said.

However, he said publicity for anti-illegal immigration groups such as Help Save Manassas also may have had an effect in early 2007.

“How you look at this report depends on where you sit,” said Guterbock, who called the study informative but said it had a mix of results.

The immigration resolution’s author, Supervisor John T. Stirrup, R-Gainesville, and supervisors’ Chairman Corey A. Stewart, R-At-large, viewed the survey results in a positive light.

“The report showed what we believed all along,” said Stewart, who has championed the anti-illegal cause through the recent creation of a political action committee. “And that is we can have a positive impact on the quality of life, bring down crime and address illegal immigration as a whole.”

“It’s fair and it’s non-discriminating,” he said of the county policy.

Stewart cited the lack of lawsuits directly related to the policy as proof of its legal muster, while Stirrup thanked the rest of the supervisors for the work put into his initial resolution, which he called bold and innovative.

“We did it because it was the right thing to do, and it was a response to the people in the community,” Stirrup said.

Prince William police Chief Charlie T. Deane said it took a lot of work to understand a new policy, and he expressed gratitude for the U.Va. researchers’ efforts to assess the regulation and its effectiveness.

The study showed an initial wedge between the Hispanic community and the police department, but it said that those relations have been partially repaired in the past two years by police outreach efforts.

Furthermore, as an indication of Hispanic residents’ comfort with law-enforcement authorities, Latinos were found to have reported crimes almost as often as non-Hispanics this year, according to the county’s recent citizen survey. And since 2008, the percentage of Hispanics reporting crimes has risen from 78.8 percent to 82.5 percent.

Staff writer Kipp Hanley can be reached at 703-530-3904. 

You can see the survey results at www.pwcgov.org.